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Book Cover
Author Frühling, Stephan, author.

Title Defence planning and uncertainty : preparing for the next Asia-Pacific war / Stephan Frühling.

Published Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2014.


Location Call No. Status
 UniM Bail  355.0335 FRUH    AVAILABLE
Physical description xi, 239 pages ; 24 cm.
Series Routledge security in Asia Pacific series.
Routledge security in Asia Pacific series.
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index.
Contents 1 Introduction: defence planning and the problem of uncertainty 1 -- Defence planning as risk management 1 -- United States, Australia and strategic risk in Asia 4 -- Strategic risk and the rise of China 6 -- 'Risk' and 'hedging' in international security 8 -- Defence decision-making, conceptual frameworks and good public policy 10 -- Conceptual fit, White Papers and defence transparency 13 -- 2 Defence planning as risk management 18 -- Defence planning and defence policy 18 -- Concept of risk and its relation to uncertainty 19 -- Characterizing strategic risks 22 -- Reducing risks: strategies and their uncertainties 24 -- Methods of inference 25 -- Deductive and abductive reasoning about strategic risks 27 -- Warning and surprise 29 -- Uncertainty and the codification of strategic guidance 31 -- Expansion and readiness: deferring capability in time 33 -- Force structuring for uncertainty: hedging, options, portfolios and flexibility 34 -- Conceptual fit of defence planning frameworks 37 -- Conclusion 38 -- 3 Net assessment-based planning 44 -- Preparing for a clear and present danger 44 -- Planning concentional US forces after Vietnam 45 -- 1987 Defence of Australia White Paper 52 -- Conclusion 59 -- 4 Mobilization planning 67 -- Preparing for a prospective threat 67 -- War plan Orange and US defence planning of the interwar years 69 -- 1970s Core Force in Australian defence planning 76 -- Conclusion 83 -- 5 Portfolio planning 90 -- Preparing for several known risks 90 -- 1993 Bottom-Up Review 92 -- Australian Defence 2000 White Paper 98 -- Conclusion 105 -- 6 Task-based planning 112 -- Preparing for un-order and the unknown 112 -- 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review 114 -- 1991 Defence of New Zealand White Paper 122 -- Conclusion 129 -- 7 US defence planning frameworks and the rise of China 137 -- China in US defence planning after the Cold War 138 -- 2000s: generic risks and global flexibility 145 -- Net assessment of conflict with China 154 -- Conclusion 161 -- 8 Managing the risk of conflict in twenty-first-century Asia 174 -- Characterizing strategic risks in the post-Cold War era 174 -- Prioritizing strategic risks: the continuing importance of geography 176 -- Competition and cooperation: the uses of armed force in the twenty-first century 117 -- Return of geography of US strategic guidance 179 -- 2012 US strategic guidance: portfolio planning against specific adversaries 180 -- US strategy and force posture in Asia 183 -- Conclusion 186 -- 9 Enduring tensions in defence planning 191 -- Defence planning is risk management 191 -- ...but planning rarely focuses on the 'worst case' 193 -- Defence planning is about strategic ideas... 194 -- ...but these ideas are inherently political 195 -- Changing defence planning frameworks may not change force structure... 196 -- ...but some force structure elements change more than others 198 -- Designating adversaries provides focus and clear measures of sufficiency... 200 -- ...but that focus can be elusive or undesired 202 -- Conclusion: the value and limits of defence planning frameworks 204.
Summary "How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future"--Publisher.
Subject Security, International -- Pacific Area.
Security, International -- Asia.
Pacific Area -- Strategic aspects.
Asia -- Strategic aspects.
China -- Military policy.
United States -- Military policy.
Australia -- Military policy.
New Zealand -- Military policy.
Variant Title Defense planning and uncertainty.
ISBN 9780415605731 (hardback)