LEADER 00000cam a22003614a 4500
003 The World Bank
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008 160311s2016 dcu o i00 0 eng
024 8 10.1596/1813-9450-7790
035 (The World Bank)7790
100 1 Liu, Jenny X.
245 10 Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030
|h[electronic resource] /|cJenny X. Liu.
260 Washington, D.C. :|bThe World Bank,|c2016.
300 1 online resource (40 p.)
520 3 In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential
health interventions to achieve health development targets
is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals
to deliver services. This paper takes a labor market
approach to project future health workforce demand based
on an economic model that projects economic growth,
demographics, and health coverage, and using health
workforce data (1990-2013) for 165 countries from the
World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory. The
demand projections are compared with the projected growth
in health worker supply and health worker "needs" as
estimated by the World Health Organization to achieve
essential health coverage. The model predicts that by 2030
global demand for health workers will rise to 80 million
workers, double the current (2013) stock of health
workers. The supply of health workers is expected to reach
65 million over the same period, resulting in a worldwide
shortage of 15 million health workers. Growth in the
demand for health workers will be highest among upper-
middle-income countries, driven by economic growth and
population growth and aging, resulting in the largest
predicted shortages, which may fuel global competition for
skilled health workers. Middle-income countries will face
workforce shortages because their demand will exceed
supply. By contrast, low-income countries will face low
growth in demand and supply, but they will face workforce
shortages because their needs will exceed supply and
demand. In many low-income countries, demand may stay
below projected supply, leading to the paradoxical
phenomenon of unemployed ("surplus") health workers in
those countries facing acute "needs-based" shortages.
700 1 Bruckner, Tim.
700 1 Goryakin, Yevgeniy.
700 1 Liu, Jenny X.
700 1 Maeda, Akiko.
700 1 Scheffler, Richard.
776 18 Print Version:|iLiu, Jenny X|tGlobal Health Workforce
Labor Market Projections for 2030|dWashington, D.C. : The
World Bank, 2016.
830 0 Policy research working papers.
830 0 World Bank e-Library.
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