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Cover Art
Author Marini, Marco.

Title Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators [electronic resource] : An Assessment of Widely Used Benchmarking Methods / Marco Marini.

Published Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.


Location Call No. Status
Physical description 1 online resource (25 p.)
Series IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
Summary Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or "nowcast") low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series.
Notes Description based on print version record.
Other author Marini, Marco.
ISBN 1484301188 : 18.00 USD
ISSN 1018-5941
Standard Number 10.5089/9781484301180.001