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Cover Art
Author Davis, Paul K., 1943-

Title A computational model of public support for insurgency and terrorism : a prototype for more-general social-science modeling / Paul K. Davis and Angela O'Mahony.

Published Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2013.


Location Call No. Status
Physical description 1 online resource (xxi, 88 pages) : color illustrations
Series Books at JSTOR Open Access
Notes "RAND National Defense Research Institute."
"This research was conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute"--Preface.
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-88).
Contents Introduction -- Specifying the model -- Implementation in a high-level language -- Looking ahead to exploratory analysis under uncertainty -- Using the model for knowledge elicitation, discussion, and diagnosis -- Appendix A: Primer on factor trees (a reprint) -- Appendix B: Verification and validation -- Appendix C: Eliciting factor values -- Appendix D: Mathematics for "and" and "or" relationships.
Summary This report builds on earlier RAND research (e.g., Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, 2012) that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to terrorism and insurgency. That research used qualitative conceptual causal models called "factor trees" to identify the factors that contribute to various aspects of terrorism or insurgency at a slice in time and how the factors relate to each other qualitatively. This report goes beyond the conceptual and qualitative by specifying a prototype uncertainty-sensitive computational model for one of the factor trees from the earlier research, one that describes public support for terrorism and insurgency. The authors first detail their approach to designing such a model, emphasizing the challenges they encountered in assigning mathematical meaning to the factor tree's numerous factors and subfactors, identifying suitable "building block" combining algorithms, and the uncertainty in their values and the relationships among them. They then describe how they implemented the model in a high-level visual-programming environment, show how the model can be used for exploratory analysis under uncertainty, and discuss their initial experience with it. Methodologically, the work illustrates a new approach to causal, uncertainty-and-context-sensitive, social-science modeling. It also illustrates how such models can be reviewable, reusable, and potentially composable.
Language notes English.
Other author O'Mahony, Angela.
United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Acquisition and Technology Policy Center.
Rand Corporation.
JSTOR issuing body.
Subject Insurgency -- Public opinion.
Terrorism -- Prevention.
Terrorism -- Public opinion.
Electronic book.
Electronic books.
ISBN 9780833083203 (electronic bk.)
0833083201 (electronic bk.)