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LEADER 00000cam a2200529 i 4500 
008    131121t20142014enk      b    001 0 eng   
010    2013033930 
019 1  52251211 
020    9780415605731 |q(hardback) 
035    .b52471962 
039    CAVAL 
040    DLC|beng|erda|cDLC|dVU 
042    pcc 
043    p------|aa------|an-us---|au-at---|au-nz--- 
050 00 UA830|b.F78 2014 
082 00 355.0335|223 
100 1  Frühling, Stephan,|0
245 10 Defence planning and uncertainty :|bpreparing for the next
       Asia-Pacific war /|cStephan Frühling. 
246 3  Defense planning and uncertainty. 
264  1 Abingdon, Oxon ;|aNew York, NY :|bRoutledge,|c2014. 
264  4 |c©2014. 
300    xi, 239 pages ;|c24 cm. 
336    text|btxt|2rdacontent 
337    unmediated|bn|2rdamedia 
338    volume|bnc|2rdacarrier 
490 1  Routledge security in Asia Pacific series. 
504    Includes bibliographical references and index. 
505 00 |g1|tIntroduction: defence planning and the problem of 
       uncertainty|g1 --|tDefence planning as risk management|g1 
       --|tUnited States, Australia and strategic risk in Asia|g4
       --|tStrategic risk and the rise of China|g6 --|t'Risk' and
       'hedging' in international security|g8 --|tDefence 
       decision-making, conceptual frameworks and good public 
       policy|g10 --|tConceptual fit, White Papers and defence 
       transparency|g13 --|g2|tDefence planning as risk 
       management|g18 --|tDefence planning and defence policy|g18
       --|tConcept of risk and its relation to uncertainty|g19 --
       |tCharacterizing strategic risks|g22 --|tReducing risks: 
       strategies and their uncertainties|g24 --|tMethods of 
       inference|g25 --|tDeductive and abductive reasoning about 
       strategic risks|g27 --|tWarning and surprise|g29 --
       |tUncertainty and the codification of strategic guidance
       |g31 --|tExpansion and readiness: deferring capability in 
       time|g33 --|tForce structuring for uncertainty: hedging, 
       options, portfolios and flexibility|g34 --|tConceptual fit
       of defence planning frameworks|g37 --|tConclusion|g38 --
       |g3|tNet assessment-based planning|g44 --|tPreparing for a
       clear and present danger|g44 --|tPlanning concentional US 
       forces after Vietnam|g45 --|t1987 Defence of Australia 
       White Paper|g52 --|tConclusion|g59 --|g4|tMobilization 
       planning|g67 --|tPreparing for a prospective threat|g67 --
       |tWar plan Orange and US defence planning of the interwar 
       years|g69 --|t1970s Core Force in Australian defence 
       planning|g76 --|tConclusion|g83 --|g5|tPortfolio planning
       |g90 --|tPreparing for several known risks|g90 --|t1993 
       Bottom-Up Review|g92 --|tAustralian Defence 2000 White 
       Paper|g98 --|tConclusion|g105 --|g6|tTask-based planning
       |g112 --|tPreparing for un-order and the unknown|g112 --
       |t2001 Quadrennial Defense Review|g114 --|t1991 Defence of
       New Zealand White Paper|g122 --|tConclusion|g129 --|g7|tUS
       defence planning frameworks and the rise of China|g137 --
       |tChina in US defence planning after the Cold War|g138 --
       |t2000s: generic risks and global flexibility|g145 --|tNet
       assessment of conflict with China|g154 --|tConclusion|g161
       --|g8|tManaging the risk of conflict in twenty-first-
       century Asia|g174 --|tCharacterizing strategic risks in 
       the post-Cold War era|g174 --|tPrioritizing strategic 
       risks: the continuing importance of geography|g176 --
       |tCompetition and cooperation: the uses of armed force in 
       the twenty-first century|g117 --|tReturn of geography of 
       US strategic guidance|g179 --|t2012 US strategic guidance:
       portfolio planning against specific adversaries|g180 --
       |tUS strategy and force posture in Asia|g183 --
       |tConclusion|g186 --|g9|tEnduring tensions in defence 
       planning|g191 --|tDefence planning is risk management|g191
       --|t...but planning rarely focuses on the 'worst case'
       |g193 --|tDefence planning is about strategic ideas...
       |g194 --|t...but these ideas are inherently political|g195
       --|tChanging defence planning frameworks may not change 
       force structure...|g196 --|t...but some force structure 
       elements change more than others|g198 --|tDesignating 
       adversaries provides focus and clear measures of 
       sufficiency...|g200 --|t...but that focus can be elusive 
       or undesired|g202 --|tConclusion: the value and limits of 
       defence planning frameworks|g204. 
520    "How can countries decide what kind of military forces 
       they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of
       strategic surprises? This is a question that is more 
       pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific 
       are faced with the military and economic rise of China. 
       Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different
       types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach 
       decisions about military force structure in different 
       ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks 
       for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make
       decisions coherently about the structure and posture of 
       their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It 
       draws on case studies from the United States, Australian 
       and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for 
       their particular circumstances and risk perception in 
       Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent 
       defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United 
       States and other countries as they consider how best to 
       structure their military forces for the uncertain 
       challenges of the future"--Publisher. 
650  0 Security, International|0
       subjects/sh85119471|zPacific Area.|0
650  0 Security, International|0
651  0 Pacific Area|0
       sh85096445|xStrategic aspects.|0
651  0 Asia|0
       |xStrategic aspects.|0
651  0 China|xMilitary policy.|0
651  0 United States|xMilitary policy.|0
651  0 Australia|xMilitary policy.|0
651  0 New Zealand|0
       |xMilitary policy.|0
830  0 Routledge security in Asia Pacific series.|0http:// 
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